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  • USD/JPY - stuck in a 40-pips range

    Stuck in 106.00-106.40 range.  Risk reversals retrace JPY call bias.  USD/JPY has been restricted to a narrow range of 106.00-106.40 since Friday's late NY trading and the risk reversals indicate the range could be breached on the higher side.  As of writing, the spot is tra...

    2018-02-19
    • Stuck in 106.00-106.40 range. 
    • Risk reversals retrace JPY call bias. 

    USD/JPY has been restricted to a narrow range of 106.00-106.40 since Friday's late NY trading and the risk reversals indicate the range could be breached on the higher side. 

    As of writing, the spot is trading at 106.23, having clocked a high of 106.37 and a low of 106.10. The pair hit a low of 105.55 on Friday before moving back above 106.00 on chart factors (oversold conditions). Also, the options market indicates the premium held by JPY calls (bullish bets) over JPY puts has dropped over the last few days. 

    The one-month 25 delta risk reversals are being paid at JPY 2.025 calls vs. JPY 2.425 calls on Feb. 12. Also, weekly risk reversals are being paid at JPY 1.53 calls vs. JPY 2.50 calls. The decline in demand for JPY calls (as highlighted by the drop in premium) could be an indication the investors are expecting a corrective rally in the USD/JPY spot. 

    So, the 40-pip trading range could end with an upside break. That said, the fears of a full-blown trade war between the US and China could keep Yen losses under the check. 

    USD/JPY Technical Levels

    FXstreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik believes it is too early to call a bottom. Bednarik writes, "the pair maintains its bearish bias according to technical readings in the daily chart, as the price continues moving away from its 100 and 200 DMAs, both over 500 pips above the current level. The Momentum indicator in the mentioned chart heads south near oversold territory, while the RSI indicator consolidates at 27. In the 4 hours chart, moving averages accelerated their downward moves far above the current level, while technical indicators have managed to bounce from oversold readings, but remain well into negative territory."

    Support levels: 106.15 105.70 105.40

    Resistance levels: 106.85 107.20 107.60

     

     

     

  • EU’s Verhofstadt: UK-EU trade deal will not be agreed before Brexit day

    The UK’s Telegraph reports the weekend’s comments from the European (EU) Parliament’s Chief Brexit coordinator Guy Verhofstadt on the EU-UK trade deal. Key Headlines: The UK's Brexit trade deal with the EU will not be finalized before exit day. Instead, there will be an...

    2018-02-19

    The UK’s Telegraph reports the weekend’s comments from the European (EU) Parliament’s Chief Brexit coordinator Guy Verhofstadt on the EU-UK trade deal.

    Key Headlines:

    The UK's Brexit trade deal with the EU will not be finalized before exit day.

    Instead, there will be an "annex" inside the withdrawal agreement which will set out what a future relationship might look like, to be thrashed out during the transitional period while current rules remain in place.

    The right of EU citizens to move freely must remain throughout the interim period.

  • Fed Chair Powell taps two specialists to serve as senior advisers

    Reuters Is out with a report that cites that the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is said to have tapped monetary policy specialists Jon Faust and Antulio Bomfim to serve as senior advisers. ...

    2018-02-19

    Reuters Is out with a report that cites that the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is said to have tapped monetary policy specialists Jon Faust and Antulio Bomfim to serve as senior advisers.

  • China threatens retaliation if US imposes steel, aluminum tariffs

    China state-run news agency Xinhua report quotes Wang Hejun, a senior official at China's Commerce Minister, as saying that China will take necessary steps to defend its rights if the United States' final decision (on tariffs) hurts Chinese interests.  Bloomberg reported on Friday...

    2018-02-19

    China state-run news agency Xinhua report quotes Wang Hejun, a senior official at China's Commerce Minister, as saying that China will take necessary steps to defend its rights if the United States' final decision (on tariffs) hurts Chinese interests. 

    Bloomberg reported on Friday that Commerce Department has recommended a 23.5 percent duty on Chinese and Russian aluminum. 

    President Trump will likely make a decision on the steel recommendations by April 11, and on the aluminum recommendations by April 19.

     

  • NZD/USD retakes 0.74 handle

    Broad-based USD weakness pushes Kiwi above 0.74.  Fears of trade war may hurt risk assets.  Kiwi found bids at 0.7376 in early Asia and rose to a session high of 0.7407, boosting the odds of a move higher to 0.7500 levels this week. Analysts at Westpac believe, "the persistent t...

    2018-02-19
    • Broad-based USD weakness pushes Kiwi above 0.74. 
    • Fears of trade war may hurt risk assets. 

    Kiwi found bids at 0.7376 in early Asia and rose to a session high of 0.7407, boosting the odds of a move higher to 0.7500 levels this week.

    Analysts at Westpac believe, "the persistent theme driving NZD/USD during the past few months has been a declining US dollar. Until that USD trend is arrested, NZD/USD will remain bid.". That said, the increased risk of a full-blown trade war between the US and China could weigh over NZD and other risk assets.

    However, as of now, the American dollar is on the retreat across the board even though the  Fed fund futures are signaling four rate hikes by end-2019.

    Looking ahead, the Kiwi may take cues from the FOMC minutes (due this Wednesday), while continuing to ignore the traditional bond market and exchange rate correlations.

    NZD/USD Technical Levels

    A move above 0.7420 (Jan. 31 high) would open up upside towards 0.7437 (Friday's high) and 0.7459 (Jul. 21 high). On the downside, a breakdown of support at 0.7376 (session low) could yield a pullback to 0.7349 (1h 100-MA) and 0.73 (1h 200-MA).

     

  • AUD/USD stretching upwards to fight off Friday's selloff, testing 0.7935

    AUD/USD bumping up to start the week. RBA Meeting Minutes drop on Tuesday. AUD/USD is taking advantage of quiet market conditions with Chinese institutions shut tight for Chinese New Year's celebrations, and the pair is up almost thirty pips to start the week and testing into 0.7935 in Toky...

    2018-02-19
    • AUD/USD bumping up to start the week.
    • RBA Meeting Minutes drop on Tuesday.

    AUD/USD is taking advantage of quiet market conditions with Chinese institutions shut tight for Chinese New Year's celebrations, and the pair is up almost thirty pips to start the week and testing into 0.7935 in Tokyo trading as of writing.

    Despite the recent Aussie bullish tone, bearish pressure is still weighing heavily, highlighted by a note from BBH, "the Australian dollar's advance brought it near the 61.8% retracement of the decline of since late January's high near $0.8135." Piling onto the bearish sentiment will be the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) publishing their Meeting Minutes on Tuesday at 00:30 GMT, though with the RBA's stance and outlook clearly telegraphed by RBA Governor Lowe, little impact can be expected outside of reminding markets how hesitant Australia's central bank is.

    Bearish pressure will continue to mount on the AUD as the RBA is left with hands tied on rates while other central banks inch closer to pulling the trigger on key rate increases. The RBA is being hogtied by sluggish growth in the Australian economy and middling data releases, with analysts expecting the RBA to stand pat until well into 2019.

    AUD/USD Technicals

    Despite recent buying strength, the pair is still far from on balance, with price still trading close to the 34 EMA, and the break over the indicator seems to be running out of steam quickly, while H4 charts show the pair still trapped within consolidation points from the latter half of last week, and weakening bullish technical prospects. Intraday action will be bound by support from 0.7895 and 0.7875, while continued buying will see resistance at 0.7965 and Friday's high at 0.7988.

     

  • BOJ to delay taper due to stronger Yen - Bloomberg survey

    Bank of Japan 's (BOJ) powerful stimulus will likely continue under Kuroda and the yen’s recent rise could make policy normalization even more remote, shows a Bloomberg survey of 26 economists following Abe’s nomination of Kuroda and new deputies Masayoshi Amamiya and Masazumi Wakata...

    2018-02-19

    Bank of Japan 's (BOJ) powerful stimulus will likely continue under Kuroda and the yen’s recent rise could make policy normalization even more remote, shows a Bloomberg survey of 26 economists following Abe’s nomination of Kuroda and new deputies Masayoshi Amamiya and Masazumi Wakatabe.

    Further, the poll shows Wakatabe, an academic and staunch reflationist, and Amamiya, a BOJ veteran, are unlikely to have an immediate impact on the monetary policy. 

     

     

     

  • Oil capturing more ground in Asia trading, WTI eyes 62.50

    Oil stretching to continue bullish correction. US output remains high, but oil has shaken this off. Crude oil prices are resuming the previous fledgling upwards trend, lifting in Asia markets with WTI nearing 62.40 and Brent trading at 65.35, as of writing. Despite the recent selloff in commod...

    2018-02-19
    • Oil stretching to continue bullish correction.
    • US output remains high, but oil has shaken this off.

    Crude oil prices are resuming the previous fledgling upwards trend, lifting in Asia markets with WTI nearing 62.40 and Brent trading at 65.35, as of writing.

    Despite the recent selloff in commodities and equities, thanks to a souring of market risk appetite in the face of a rising interest yield environment for the first time in a decade, crude oil has managed to stage a comeback, with the commodity higher for that last three consecutive trading days, and looking to make it a fourth early in the week.

    After the dramatic risk-based slide in oil prices, WTI and Brent have both recouped roughly half of the declines, though the technical traders will note this is also the 50.0 Fibo retrace territory, so the downside risk still remains for the liquid commodity. The US is still pumping record amounts of oil into the global market, and OPEC is still powerless to do anything about it.

    Crude Technicals

    The recent pullback priced in a bottom at 62.50 for Brent and 59.00 for WTI, and Brent will soon run into resistance from the 34-day EMA at 66.25 soon, while WTI is currently trading over the 34-day EMA at 62.00, and will be looking for a decisive capture-and-close of the region to continue pushing higher.

  • EUR/USD: headed back to recent highs on 1.25 handle?

    EUR/USD pulling back into line? EUR/USD well supported technically. With the US markets closed for Presidents Day today, and China out, it is a slow start to the week and prices are likely to be contained within Friday's ranges while the dollar was able to recover some lost ground to close ...

    2018-02-19
    • EUR/USD pulling back into line?
    • EUR/USD well supported technically.

    With the US markets closed for Presidents Day today, and China out, it is a slow start to the week and prices are likely to be contained within Friday's ranges while the dollar was able to recover some lost ground to close the week.

    EUR/USD was in a bearish key reversal last week due to the DXY's rebound from 50% of its 2011-17 rise at 88.25. EUR/USD closed at 1.2405 from 1.2554 highs.  The dollar was able to recover on the back of profit taking when yields dropped (despite inflationary data) and stocks picked up on Wall Street. 

    EUR/USD to remain well supported

    Analysts at Rabobank explained that they are of the view that the USD will be able to gain ground against a number of high yielding currencies over the medium-term.  "However, we expect that the strength of Eurozone fundamentals will mean that EUR/USD remains well supported," the analysts added. 

    Meanwhile, analysts at Nomura explained that they expect economic activity in the eurozone to remain well above trend in 2018 and well above consensus. 

    Economic activity in eurozone to remain well above trend in 2018 - Nomura

    EZ PMI's and FOMC minutes are in focus this week. For Friday's session, the Fed fund futures yields price a total of four hikes by end-2019.

    EUR/USD levels

    Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that shorter term, the pair is at risk of correcting further lower, as it broke below its 20 SMA: "Technical indicators are crossing into negative territory with strong downward slopes. The 100 SMA stands around the mentioned 1.2390 region, reinforcing the relevance of the support."

  • EUR/AUD seeking Friday's low on thin markets

    EUR/AUD set to continue moving sideways. ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting on Wednesday. EUR/AUD is indecisive to start off the week, testing the week's open price and Friday's low of 1.5676. With China's institutions shuttered for the first half of the week to celebrate Chinese New Y...

    2018-02-19
    • EUR/AUD set to continue moving sideways.
    • ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting on Wednesday.

    EUR/AUD is indecisive to start off the week, testing the week's open price and Friday's low of 1.5676. With China's institutions shuttered for the first half of the week to celebrate Chinese New Year, Asia markets promise thin volumes and muted price moves going forward into the next few days.

    The European Central Bank (ECB) will be posting their Non-Monetary Policy Minutes on Wednesday at 08:00 GMT, where the topic of discussion will largely be Brexit and talking points with the EU's lead Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier. Europe also has their Eurogroup and EcoFin meetings on Monday and Tuesday respectively, where the topics of discussion will largely be activities and future plans for within the Eurozone looking into the future.

    EUR/AUD has largely consolidated for 12 straight trading days as the Euro and the Aussie struggle to compete with each other, as both currencies have shown to be susceptible to selling off in the recent risk events that saw dramatic swings in market confidence in equities and the US Dollar. Between the two, the Aussie is likely to wind up the bigger loser, as middling economic growth is keeping the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) firmly in wait-and-see mode in regards to interest rates, with many analysts anticipating no movement from the RBA in 2018, while other central banks around the globe are gearing up to begin raising rates soon.

    EUR/AUD Technicals

    The pair is still consolidating near the top, testing into two-year highs last week but failing to make any further gains. Charts are still strongly bullish, with price trading high above both the 34 EMA and 200-day SMA, while H4 charts show the pair firmly in a consolidation trap between 1.5650 and 1.5775. Intraday moves will be met with support at 1.5657 and 1.5615, and resistance waiting above at 1.5725, 1.5766, and 1.5800.

     

  • USD/CAD trades heavy as oil clocks two-week high

    CAD on the rise, tracking uptick in oil. USD on the back foot across the board. Having created a bullish outside day candle on Friday, the prospects further gains in USD/CAD looked good, however, the uptick in oil prices seems to have played a spoilsport. As of writing, the USD/CAD is trading ...

    2018-02-19
    • CAD on the rise, tracking uptick in oil.
    • USD on the back foot across the board.

    Having created a bullish outside day candle on Friday, the prospects further gains in USD/CAD looked good, however, the uptick in oil prices seems to have played a spoilsport.

    As of writing, the USD/CAD is trading lower by 22 cents or 0.18 percent at 1.2535. The Canadian dollar may have found some love in Asia as the US oil prices clocked a two-week high of $62.30 per barrel.

    Meanwhile, the greenback is reporting moderate losses across the board. China has threatened retaliation if the US imposes tariffs on their aluminum, according to Bloomberg. This could boost fears of a full-blown trade war and keep USD on the back foot during the day ahead. Also, trading volumes may drop as US markets are closed on account of President's Day.

    USD/CAD Technical Levels

    A positive follow-through to Friday's bullish outside day candle would signal the rally from Jan. 31 low of 1.348 has resumed. In such a scenario, the spot could target 1.2689 (Feb. 9 high) and 1.2729 (200-day MA).

    On the other hand, a close below Friday's low of 1.2450 would shift risk in favor of a re-test of 1.2355 (Jan. 5 low) and 1.2247 (Jan. 31 low).

     

  • Economic activity in eurozone to remain well above trend in 2018 - Nomura

    Analysts at Nomura explained that they expect economic activity in the eurozone to remain well above trend in 2018 and well above consensus.  Key Quotes: "Core inflation should grind higher in the coming months as output gaps close and wage pressures firm." "We believe the ECB...

    2018-02-19

    Analysts at Nomura explained that they expect economic activity in the eurozone to remain well above trend in 2018 and well above consensus. 

    Key Quotes:

    "Core inflation should grind higher in the coming months as output gaps close and wage pressures firm."

    "We believe the ECB will start to lift policy rates toward the end of 2018, sooner than the market expects."

    "UK growth will be Brexit-dependent; we expect a two-year EEA-style transition and eventually a Canada-plus style free trade deal."

    "Near-term: slow UK domestic demand growth as above-target inflation and political uncertainty dominate stronger net exports."

    "We expect UK GDP growth to be broadly stable at 1.5% in 2018 and 2019, with inflation falling as the FX impact wanes in 2018."

    "We expect two BoE rate hikes in 2018 (May and November), a pace we think will continue in 2019 – faster than markets think."

  • AUD/USD: headed back to the 61.8% retracement level of 0.8135? - BBH

    Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that the Australian dollar's advance brought it near the 61.8% retracement of the decline of the since late January's high near $0.8135.   Key Quotes: "After approaching the retracement objective near $0.7990, the Aussie reversed cour...

    2018-02-19

    Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that the Australian dollar's advance brought it near the 61.8% retracement of the decline of the since late January's high near $0.8135.  

    Key Quotes:

    "After approaching the retracement objective near $0.7990, the Aussie reversed course and returned toward $0.7900.

    The Slow Stochastic has turned up and the MACDs are about to cross higher.  

    The RSI flattened out in response to the Aussie's pullback.  

    There is a band of support in the $0.7855-$0.7880 area, which if penetrated of a retest the recent low near a cent lower." 

  • Stronger forward guidance to weaken the yen? - Nomura

    Analysts at Nomura explained that while no changes in the BOJ’s policy stance mean the direction of yen-crosses will depend on overseas factors, stronger forward guidance could weaken JPY by reducing market expectations for a near-term rate hike by the BOJ significantly.  Key Quotes: &q...

    2018-02-19

    Analysts at Nomura explained that while no changes in the BOJ’s policy stance mean the direction of yen-crosses will depend on overseas factors, stronger forward guidance could weaken JPY by reducing market expectations for a near-term rate hike by the BOJ significantly. 

    Key Quotes:

    "Even if the BOJ embarks on its exit strategy now (not our main scenario), new guidance on the 10yr yield target will also be considered to avoid disruptive market reactions."

    "April’s policy meeting (26-27 April) will be the first meeting with the new BOJ leadership, and there will be more clarity on the new leaders’ policy stance into the meeting."

    "We will look for any clues about the possible direction of the BOJ’s policy stance after the BOJ leader reshuffle."

  • EUR/JPY lifting on quiet markets, but bearish pressure still heavy

    EUR/JPY up on thin Chinese holiday markets. Pair still trading near the bottom in bearish action. EUR/JPY is lifting in Tokyo trading, testing the waters around the 132.00 handle in quiet markets, with Chinese banks off for the first half of the week to celebrate Chinese New Year. The Yen soft...

    2018-02-19
    • EUR/JPY up on thin Chinese holiday markets.
    • Pair still trading near the bottom in bearish action.

    EUR/JPY is lifting in Tokyo trading, testing the waters around the 132.00 handle in quiet markets, with Chinese banks off for the first half of the week to celebrate Chinese New Year.

    The Yen softened briefly in early Asia trading following disappointment in Japanese trade balance data, and as FXStreet's own Omkar Godbole noted in a GBP/JPY piece, "Japan reported trade deficit of ¥(JPY) 943.4 billion in January as imports rose 7.9 percent year-on-year and exports jumped 12.2 percent. Meanwhile, the Tankan index showed confidence among Japanese manufacturers worsened... Both data sets have not had any significant impact on the JPY pairs". The price movements following trade figures is relatively small, and unlikely to make a dent on overall market sentiment heading through the week.

    EUR/JPY Technicals

    The pair has declined for two straight weeks, and the long-term bull run is being deeply threatened as price has dropped below the 34 EMA, and inches closer to the 200-day SMA, now sitting at 130.93. Bearish moves will be challenged by support at Friday's low of 131.81, and 131.60 further down, while a bullish correction will have to contend with resistance at 132.38, 132.53, and 132.95 before the pair can carry higher.

  • Majority of UK households see BOE hike rates within 6 months - IHS

    The news is crossing the wires via LiveSquawk that 60 percent of UK households expect Bank of England (BOE) to raise rates within 6 months, up from 45 percent in January, according to IHS Markit. Also, the household finance index fell to 42.2 in Feb - the lowest level since July.     ...

    2018-02-19

    The news is crossing the wires via LiveSquawk that 60 percent of UK households expect Bank of England (BOE) to raise rates within 6 months, up from 45 percent in January, according to IHS Markit. Also, the household finance index fell to 42.2 in Feb - the lowest level since July. 
     

     

  • Japanese exports rose for 14th straight month in January

    Japan reported an uptick in exports for the 14th consecutive month in January, indicating the activity continues to benefit from the improved economic conditions in Europe and Asia.  Exports rose 12.2 percent in January, beating the estimated rise of 10.3 percent, still, the trade balance fell...

    2018-02-19

    Japan reported an uptick in exports for the 14th consecutive month in January, indicating the activity continues to benefit from the improved economic conditions in Europe and Asia. 

    Exports rose 12.2 percent in January, beating the estimated rise of 10.3 percent, still, the trade balance fell into a deficit of ¥(JPY) 943.4 billion as imports rose 7.9 percent year-on-year. Shipments to Asia climbed 16 percent, while exports to western Europe logged 20.8 percent growth, according to FT report. 

    The rise in exports is encouraging, however, a more forward-looking indicator named Tankan index shows the rising Yen could play a spoilsport in future. The Reuters Tankan poll released today showed the confidence among Japanese manufacturers worsened significantly in February from January’s strong reading, largely due to Yen's strength and stock market drop. 

    Reuters report says, "the sentiment index for manufacturers stood at 29 in February, down from the previous month’s 11-year high of 35, the survey conducted Jan. 31 to Feb. 14 found."

     

     

     

  • USD/JPY: within a lower range between 105.50/50

    USD/JPY: bears remain in control within lower target range. USD/JPY: bulls above descending resistance.  USD/JPY is currently consolidating above the descending resistance line formed within last week's southerly channel from 108.80 with the price sideways around the 50 hr SMA at ...

    2018-02-19
    • USD/JPY: bears remain in control within lower target range.
    • USD/JPY: bulls above descending resistance. 

    USD/JPY is currently consolidating above the descending resistance line formed within last week's southerly channel from 108.80 with the price sideways around the 50 hr SMA at 106.27. 

    USD/JPY has been in a sharp free-fall this month on dollar weakness, prospects of higher inflation and in uncertainty over the US economy that subsequently ignited the stock market rout creating a flight to safety.  This has all left the pair still below 61.8% of the 2016 rise at 106.50 and in a lower range between there and 105.50. 

    BoJ Gov Kuroda was reappointed

    Meanwhile, the new BOJ leadership has been announced. BoJ Gov Kuroda was reappointed, as expected and Amamiya/Wakatabe were selected at Deputy Governors. Analysts at Nomura believe the new leadership will be more dovish than the current leadership:

    "Our main scenario is that the Bank will maintain its current policy framework, with the 10yr yield target around 0%, and we think market interest is mainly focused on the possibility of a BOJ tightening. However, the new BOJ leadership may take a fresh look at the policy framework. There is also financial market turbulence and JPY appreciation, which may weaken positive momentum towards the inflation goal."

    Market wrap: US dollar recovers some lost ground - Westpac

    USD/JPY levels

    The pair maintains its bearish bias according to technical readings in the daily chart, as the price continues moving away from its 100 and 200 DMAs, both over 500 pips above the current level. 

    Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that the 4 hours chart shows that the price holds well below bearish moving averages, with the 100 SMA currently around 108.65, too far away to be relevant short term:

    "The Momentum indicator lost upward strength well into negative territory, while the RSI aims to recover from oversold readings, currently at 35, all of which maintains the risk toward the downside. Poor US housing data could see the pair resuming its decline, with a break below 106.00 leading to an extension toward the 105.00 region for later in the day,"

  • Is GBP/JPY building base below 149.00?

    The chart shows multiple daily lows around 148.90. Japan logs trade deficit in January, Tankan index dropped in Feb. Four out of last six candles on the GBP/JPY daily chart show intraday low in the 148.90 neighborhood. Further, last Wednesday's "long-tailed" doji also indicated t...

    2018-02-19
    • The chart shows multiple daily lows around 148.90.
    • Japan logs trade deficit in January, Tankan index dropped in Feb.

    Four out of last six candles on the GBP/JPY daily chart show intraday low in the 148.90 neighborhood.

    Further, last Wednesday's "long-tailed" doji also indicated the sell-off from 156.61 (Feb. 2 high) has run out of steam. The price action indicates the cross could be building a base for a corrective rally. As of writing, the pair is trading at 149.20.

    Japan reported trade deficit of ¥(JPY) 943.4 billion in January as imports rose 7.9 percent year-on-year and exports jumped 12.2 percent. Meanwhile, the Tankan index showed confidence among Japanese manufacturers worsened significantly in February due to appreciation in the Yen. Both data sets have not had any significant impact on the JPY pairs.

    That said the pair could witness a big move higher if UK wage growth data due this Wednesday beat estimates. Also, PM May and several ministers are set to deliver a series of speeches this week. The pound may find takers if May and Co. clarify the government’s position on Brexit.

    GBP/JPY Technical Levels

    A break above 149.48 (5-day MA) would open up upside towards 150.00 (psychological level) and 150.38 (10-day MA). On the downside, breach of support at 148.78 (previous day's low) could yield 147.96 (last Wednesday's doji candle low) and 147.60 (200-day MA).

     

     

  • AUD/JPY starts the new week trying to gain, mounts 84.10 in early Asia

    AUD/JPY up in early trading to start the new week. Aussie gaining on Yen data miss. AUD/JPY lifted early in the new trading week following softer-than-expected trade balance figures for Japan, testing the waters just beneath 84.20 as of writing. Asia session will be thin as Chinese ba...

    2018-02-19
    • AUD/JPY up in early trading to start the new week.
    • Aussie gaining on Yen data miss.

    AUD/JPY lifted early in the new trading week following softer-than-expected trade balance figures for Japan, testing the waters just beneath 84.20 as of writing. Asia session will be thin as Chinese banks take the first half of the week off to celebrate Chinese New Year.

    Merchandise Trade Balance and Imports both came in as a soft miss for Japan, with Imports showing a steeper decline than expected, coming in at 7.9%, well under the previous 14.9%. Meanwhile, Merchandise Trade Balance came in better than expected but still a downer, with the Japanese economy recording a 943.4 billion Yen deficit over the previous surplus reading of 358.7B Yen.

    Bullish prospects for the Aussie remain limited looking forward, as hampered economic growth in Australia has left the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lagging far behind other central banks in their plans to begin increasing rates, with analysts at Westpac largely expecting the RBA to stand pat through this year and 2019 as well. The RBA's February Meeting Minutes will drop on Tuesday at 00:30 GMT, but little action can be expected as the RBA's statements and outlook on the Australian economy have been well-telegraphed.

    AUD/JPY Technicals

    The Aussie is continuing to dropoff in the face of Yen strength, trading consistently lower in February, and bearish pressure increasing as the 34-EMA crosses down below the 200-day SMA, trading well above current prices, at 86.50. H4 charts paint an equally bearish picture, with the pair dropping consistently for two weeks below a bearish 34-EMA. Current support can be found at 83.90 and 83.40, while bullish action will be constrained by resistance at 84.30 and 84.60.

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string(24) "Central African Republic" [33]=> string(4) "Chad" [34]=> string(5) "Chile" [35]=> string(5) "China" [36]=> string(7) "Colombi" [37]=> string(7) "Comoros" [38]=> string(19) "Congo (Brazzaville)" [39]=> string(5) "Congo" [40]=> string(10) "Costa Rica" [41]=> string(13) "Cote d'Ivoire" [42]=> string(7) "Croatia" [43]=> string(4) "Cuba" [44]=> string(6) "Cyprus" [45]=> string(14) "Czech Republic" [46]=> string(7) "Denmark" [47]=> string(8) "Djibouti" [48]=> string(8) "Dominica" [49]=> string(18) "Dominican Republic" [50]=> string(24) "East Timor (Timor Timur)" [51]=> string(7) "Ecuador" [52]=> string(5) "Egypt" [53]=> string(11) "El Salvador" [54]=> string(17) "Equatorial Guinea" [55]=> string(7) "Eritrea" [56]=> string(7) "Estonia" [57]=> string(8) "Ethiopia" [58]=> string(4) "Fiji" [59]=> string(7) "Finland" [60]=> string(6) "France" [61]=> string(5) "Gabon" [62]=> string(11) "Gambia, The" [63]=> string(7) "Georgia" [64]=> string(7) "Germany" [65]=> string(5) "Ghana" [66]=> string(6) "Greece" [67]=> string(7) "Grenada" [68]=> string(9) "Guatemala" [69]=> string(6) "Guinea" [70]=> string(13) "Guinea-Bissau" [71]=> string(6) "Guyana" [72]=> string(5) "Haiti" [73]=> string(8) "Honduras" [74]=> string(7) "Hungary" [75]=> string(7) "Iceland" [76]=> string(5) "India" [77]=> string(9) "Indonesia" [78]=> string(4) "Iran" [79]=> string(4) "Iraq" [80]=> string(7) "Ireland" [81]=> string(6) "Israel" [82]=> string(5) "Italy" [83]=> string(7) "Jamaica" [84]=> string(5) "Japan" [85]=> string(6) "Jordan" [86]=> string(10) "Kazakhstan" [87]=> string(5) "Kenya" [88]=> string(8) "Kiribati" [89]=> string(12) "Korea, North" [90]=> string(7) "Lebanon" [91]=> string(12) "Korea, South" [92]=> string(6) "Kuwait" [93]=> string(10) "Kyrgyzstan" [94]=> string(4) "Laos" [95]=> string(6) "Latvia" [96]=> string(7) "Lesotho" [97]=> string(7) "Liberia" [98]=> string(5) "Libya" [99]=> string(13) "Liechtenstein" [100]=> string(9) "Lithuania" [101]=> string(10) "Luxembourg" [102]=> string(9) "Macedonia" [103]=> string(10) "Madagascar" [104]=> string(6) "Malawi" [105]=> string(8) "Malaysia" [106]=> string(8) "Maldives" [107]=> string(4) "Mali" [108]=> string(5) "Malta" [109]=> string(16) "Marshall Islands" [110]=> string(10) "Mauritania" [111]=> string(9) "Mauritius" [112]=> string(6) "Mexico" [113]=> string(10) "Micronesia" [114]=> string(7) "Moldova" [115]=> string(6) "Monaco" [116]=> string(8) "Mongolia" [117]=> string(7) "Morocco" [118]=> string(10) "Mozambique" [119]=> string(7) "Myanmar" [120]=> string(7) "Namibia" [121]=> string(5) "Nauru" [122]=> string(5) "Nepal" [123]=> string(11) "Netherlands" [124]=> string(11) "New Zealand" [125]=> string(9) "Nicaragua" [126]=> string(5) "Niger" [127]=> string(7) "Nigeria" [128]=> string(6) "Norway" [129]=> string(4) "Oman" [130]=> string(8) "Pakistan" [131]=> string(5) "Palau" [132]=> string(6) "Panama" [133]=> string(16) "Papua New Guinea" [134]=> string(8) "Paraguay" [135]=> string(4) "Peru" [136]=> string(11) "Philippines" [137]=> string(6) "Poland" [138]=> string(8) "Portugal" [139]=> string(5) "Qatar" [140]=> string(7) "Romania" [141]=> string(6) "Russia" [142]=> string(6) "Rwanda" [143]=> string(21) "Saint Kitts and Nevis" [144]=> string(11) "Saint Lucia" [145]=> string(13) "Saint Vincent" [146]=> string(5) "Samoa" [147]=> string(10) "San Marino" [148]=> string(21) "Sao Tome and Principe" [149]=> string(12) "Saudi Arabia" [150]=> string(7) "Senegal" [151]=> string(21) "Serbia and Montenegro" [152]=> string(10) "Seychelles" [153]=> string(12) "Sierra Leone" [154]=> string(9) "Singapore" [155]=> string(8) "Slovakia" [156]=> string(8) "Slovenia" [157]=> string(15) "Solomon Islands" [158]=> string(7) "Somalia" [159]=> string(12) "South Africa" [160]=> string(5) "Spain" [161]=> string(9) "Sri Lanka" [162]=> string(5) "Sudan" [163]=> string(8) "Suriname" [164]=> string(9) "Swaziland" [165]=> string(6) "Sweden" [166]=> string(11) "Switzerland" [167]=> string(5) "Syria" [168]=> string(6) 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[2]=> string(16) "Customer Service" } ["videoconference"]=> array(4) { [1]=> string(18) "Introducing Broker" [2]=> string(11) "White Label" [3]=> string(15) "Senior Partners" [4]=> string(16) "Franchise Scheme" } ["subject"]=> array(6) { [1]=> string(15) "Technical Issue" [2]=> string(14) "Platform Issue" [3]=> string(11) "Trade Issue" [4]=> string(13) "Deposit Issue" [5]=> string(14) "Withdraw Issue" [6]=> string(5) "Other" } ["data"]=> NULL ["needsmscode"]=> bool(false) }